In the last weeks one could hear the penny drop in Alberta on the question of separation, and that penny is an American one. The recognition was that without Ottawa understanding the risks, Alberta’s quarrel-seeking had found a new threat: joining the United States. The recent trip of Alberta Prosperity Project separatists to ask for Washington’s aid focused attention. While Alberta separation is unviable; as the 51st State, the division of Canada is a real possibility.
Political rhetoric can capitalize on unresponsiveness of the Federal government and dismissiveness of opponents to blame all ills on Ottawa. Both the Federal government and Provincial Opposition are silent while the Province’s Bill 14 flouts Indigenous treaties when it clears the way for a referendum on separation
Focused on their own relative economic advantage and with a weak sense of a difference between Canadian and American values, many Albertans could be tempted by an American union. Angus Reid’s polling numbers that put committed separatists at 29% are still shockingly high. Divided between landed and professional libertarians and footloose migrants pursuing suburban consumer dreams from one jurisdiction to another, frustrated by economic and service barriers, Alberta votersʻ commitment to an abstract Canada is fickle.
I doubt that assimilation to the US would end well for the current generation. Maybe a few generations hence would see free travel and access south. But economic logic suggests that separatist-unionists will play some Trump cards, even if full US citizenship or economic access turned out to be a mirage. The costs and compromises that would come with joining the US dissuade me and most who look into this seriously. But when push comes to shove, how would Albertans vote? Would we have to depend on Indigenous and Metis nations standing up for Canada?
Would Alberta take Saskatchewan with it? An American Alberta may force British Columbia to join. However, this would make the Yukon inaccessible from the remnants of Canada and itsaccession to the United States could be the basis for even claiming the Northwest Territories to expand American resources and arctic access. Merchants and corporations would profit handsomely, as would future governors of new northwestern states of the Union.
The remaining country would align remarkably with the 18th century stereotypes of Canada – the vision in Ottawa’s National Gallery, for example, that concentrates on representing the two solitudes of Upper and Lower Canada with a juxtaposition of Indigenous culture. Facing a similar future to that of Ukraine, an internally divided and bankrupt Canada would remain as a vestige stripped of well over half of its natural resources and exports. Stripped of the western resource frontier, the value of the dollar would plunge and imported food that cities rely on would become unaffordable for many.
A True North Strong and Free but American? A Canada that exists only from Manitoba eastward is a real possibility that must be faced down, not ignored. Canada needs to be actually realized in east-west trade, exchanges and in tangible, everyday experience – in emergency waiting rooms, access to family doctors, uncrowded classrooms, a stress on inclusive community rather than imposed urban plans, unconstrained opportunities to start a business, and to make a home. That’s the challenge. If Canada not made real, if we don’t get real, then the country is easily broken up.
-Rob Shields (Univ. of Alberta)